Ottawa housing prices: Month to Month: -0.5 % Year over Year: 4.6 %

FEBRUARY 2012

CANADIAN HOME PRICES DOWN 0.2% IN DECEMBER

For a second consecutive month, Canadian home prices in December were down 0.2% from the previous month, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. The two monthly retreats follow two months in which prices had been flat from the month before. December prices were down in five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed: 0.8% in Victoria, 0.5% in Ottawa-Gatineau and Montreal and 0.3% in Toronto and Vancouver. For Ottawa-Gatineau, Vancouver and Victoria it was the third consecutive decline and for Toronto it was the second. Prices in Edmonton were flat. Prices were up 0.3% in Quebec City, 0.6% in Winnipeg, 0.7% in Hamilton and Calgary and 0.9% in Halifax. In Calgary the December rise ended a run of three monthly declines.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

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The 12-month gain of the composite index in December was 6.8%. The slight deceleration from 7.1% in November was due to the end of a short run of monthly declines in November 2010. The December 12-month change varied widely from market to market. It was 9.9% in Toronto, 8.7% in Winnipeg, 8.2% in Vancouver, 7.7% in Hamilton and 7.2% in Quebec City – five markets in which the 12-month rise exceeded that of the composite index. It was 6.2% in Montreal and 4.6% in Ottawa-Gatineau. There were much smaller 12-month gains of 1.6% in Halifax, 1.0% in Edmonton, 0.9% in Calgary and 0.3% in Victoria. December was the first month since September 2010 in which all 11 metropolitan markets showed prices up from 12 months earlier.

 

For January 2012, the Canadian Real Estate Association reports seasonally adjusted ratios of new listings to sales that show market conditions generally balanced in the country as a whole. The exceptions were tight markets in Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg and (suddenly) Halifax, and buyer’s markets in Vancouver and Victoria.

 

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan area Index level
December
% change m/m % change y/y
Calgary 154.88 0.7 % 0.9 %
Edmonton 163.64 0.0 % 1.0 %
Halifax 132.48 0.9 % 1.6 %
Hamilton 131.28 0.7 % 7.7 %
Montreal 143.69 -0.5 % 6.2 %
Ottawa 137.04 -0.5 % 4.6 %
Quebec 166.18 0.3 % 7.2 %
Toronto 138.15 -0.3 % 9.9 %
Vancouver 169.29 -0.3 % 8.2 %
Victoria 139.51 -0.8 % 0.3 %
Winnipeg 180.28 0.6 % 8.7 %
National Composite 6 147.82 -0.2 % 7.4 %
National Composite 11 148.87 -0.2 % 6.8 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:
Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank
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